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September 9, 2010
Eliciting Probability Distribution from Experts
Location: Sheffield, South Yorkshire, England, UK
Venue: The Centre for Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics, University of Sheffield
Date: 9th September 2010
Course faculty
Dr Jeremy Oakley, Professor
Anthony O’Hagan
Mr John Stevens
Background
Decision analytic models such as economic models submitted to NICE and similar reimbursement authorities around the world often incorporate evidence in the form of expert opinion. Experts’ beliefs about unknown quantities of interest can be described using probability distributions following a process of elicitation. This practical course aims provide participants with the skills required to elicit experts’ probability distributions about unknown quantities of interest. The course is based around the SHELF package: a set of templates and software routines in R for conducting elicitation.
Who will benefit from the course?
The course is suitable for health economists, statisticians, systematic reviewers and decision-makers interested in the elicitation of experts’ probability distributions about unknown quantities of interest to populate economic models. The course is also suitable for researchers in other disciplines who wish to learn about expert elicitation. No previous knowledge of elicitation or of the software package R is assumed.
What does the course deliver?
At the end of this course, participants should:
- Understand the use of probability distributions to represent uncertainty
- Be familiar with the techniques available to elicit experts’ probability distributions
- Be able to facilitate the elicitation of a probability distribution from a single expert and from multiple experts
- Be able to fit univariate probability distributions to experts’ judgements using the SHELF routines and the software package R
- Know how to document the elicitation process using the SHELF package
Course content
Five lectures, including practical exercises
- Using subjective probability distributions to represent uncertainty
- The psychology of elicitation
- Eliciting univariate probability distributions from a single expert using SHELF
- Eliciting probability distributions from groups of experts using SHELF
- Multivariate elicitation
Cost
Commercial £200
Academic/Government £150
Course fees include lunch and refreshments. Participants will each need a laptop, if you are unable to provide this then we can arrange one for you.
Further information and bookings can be found at http://www.shef.ac.uk/scharr/shortcourseunit/courses_new/elic2010.html
Or contact Jacquie Bennett at jacquie.bennett@sheffield.ac.uk Tel. +44 (0)114 222 2968
